From American Pharoah’s historic triumph to Citizen Bull’s promising return, a 20-year journey reveals how early brilliance meets the challenges of the three-year campaign on the North American turf
By Diego H. Mitagstein
Over the past two decades, U.S. Two-Year-Old Champions have served not only as a benchmark for a generation’s quality but also as a means to gauge the impact of their three-year-old campaigns on a stage where expectations are as high as the demands. The imminent return of Citizen Bull—recently crowned 2024 U.S. Champion Two-Year-Old Male—opens the door to review how his predecessors fared when they returned to the track during the past twenty years.
A review of the statistics makes it clear that the transition from juvenile brilliance to three-year-old performance is neither straightforward nor guaranteed. Numerous examples abound: from stars who confirmed their supremacy to those who never managed to replicate the early-season successes.
Among the most prominent names, one of the first that comes to mind is American Pharoah (Pioneer of the Nile), the 2014 U.S. Champion Two-Year-Old Male. After a dazzling start in which he displayed flashes of greatness, the Bob Baffert protégé began his three-year-old campaign with a commanding victory in the Rebel Stakes (G2), setting in motion an unforgettable year that culminated in his Triple Crown triumph—a feat not accomplished since Affirmed (Exclusive Native) in 1978.
However, not every champion managed to write a story of such impact. In 2009, Lookin At Lucky (Smart Strike) earned the Eclipse Award as the top two-year-old and proved to be a model of consistency, tallying wins in the Rebel Stakes (G2) and the Preakness Stakes (G1), although the Kentucky Derby (G1) eluded him due to mishaps during the race. On the other hand, cases such as Midshipman (Unbridled's Song), the 2008 champion, reveal how injuries and changes in trainers can derail a transition that, on paper, looked promising.
More recent history has also provided valuable lessons. Essential Quality (Tapit), the 2020 champion, not only maintained his form as a three-year-old but also cemented his legacy with a Belmont Stakes (G1) win and several other top-level classics. Prior to him, Nyquist (Uncle Mo) (2015) also shone by capturing the Kentucky Derby and confirming his quality as one of the best of his generation.
Yet, the list also includes names that, for various reasons, fell short of the lofty expectations set during their two-year-old seasons. Some, like War Pass (Cherokee Run) (2007) or Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday) (2012), encountered physical setbacks that ultimately limited their potential, leaving fans to wonder what might have been.
The case of Citizen Bull (Into Mischief) is particularly intriguing. The 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner delivered an authoritative performance, and his potential as a three-year-old appears as vast as the expectations surrounding him. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt, who has shown both exceptional speed and the ability to navigate heavy traffic, will face the ever-challenging path to the Kentucky Derby with a schedule that could include the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and the Florida Derby (G1) or even the Santa Anita Derby (G1), according to his connections.
Will Citizen Bull be able to join the elite group of champions who reaffirmed their dominance as they matured, or will he fall into the category of unfulfilled promises? History offers examples on both sides, but one thing is certain: his return will be closely watched by all racing fans, eager to see how the next chapter of his career unfolds.
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